Tài liệu Central Asia and Its Asian Neighbors doc

LINK DOWNLOAD MIỄN PHÍ TÀI LIỆU "Tài liệu Central Asia and Its Asian Neighbors doc": http://123doc.vn/document/1045366-tai-lieu-central-asia-and-its-asian-neighbors-doc.htm

Caspian
Sea
Leke
Balkhash
Pakistan
Qandahar
Herat
Mashhad
Mary
Charjew
Bukhoro
Samarqand
Osh
Tarim He
Katun’
Ob’
Irtysh
Esil
lle
Kuqa
Yining
Zaysan
Tomsk
Novosibirsk
Ayagoz
Lepsi
Shu
Balqash
Esil
Urganch
Nukus
Dashhowuz
Turkmenbashi
Qarshi
Ufa
Shalqar
Tyumen'
Y
a
z
d
Shymkent
Taldygorghan
Oskemen
Oaraghandy
Koksnetau
Petropavl
Surgut
Qostanay
Chelyabinsk
Arqalyq
Zhezqazghan
Qyzylorda
Aral
Aqtobe
Samara
Magnitogorsk
Penza
Kirov
Izhevsk
Oral
Aqtau
Beyneu
Pavlodar
Omsk
Almaty
Ashgabat
Tashkent
Kabul
Dushanbe
Bishkek
Islamabad
Astana
Baku
Tehran
Iran
Zhayyq
Amu Darya
Syrdariya
Ural
Tobol
Afghanistan
Central Asia
Kazakhstan
Russia
Turkmenistan
Uzbekistan
China
India
Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan
Mazar-e Sharif
Atyrau
Volga
Kama
Aral
Sea
Barnaul
0
0
200
200
400 km
400 miles
Khujand

v
Preface
The countries of Central Asia are greatly influenced by their Asian
neighbors. Much analysis has been put forth on the issue of the rela-
tions between the Central Asian states and Russia, but the countries
to the south and east, including China, Iran, Afghanistan, India, and
Pakistan, also have a powerful but less understood effect on the Cen-
tral Asian states’ security and economic interests.
1
This monograph assesses the mutual interests of the Central
Asian states and their Asian neighbors, and considers the implications
of these interests for the United States. It also looks at the role of rela-
tions between the states of the region in this context, and at the role
of multinational organizations such as the Shanghai Cooperation Or-
ganization (SCO). This monograph should be of interest to policy-
makers and analysts involved in international security and U.S. for-
eign policy.
The analysis in this monograph is informed by a yearlong re-
search effort, which included travel to the region and extensive inter-
views with U.S., regional, and global specialists; government officials;
and others. It involved a multidisciplinary team of researchers who
sought to combine their understanding of politics, economics, and
military strategic analysis to bring fresh perspectives to the questions
at hand.
This monograph is one of several reporting the results of the re-
search effort. Other documents address political structures and par-
____________
1
See Burghart and Sabonis-Helf (2004); Oliker and Shlapak (2005).
vi Central Asia and Its Neighbors: Security and Commerce at the Crossroads
ticipation; religion, ethnicity, and clans; and economic development.
In addition, a broad overview monograph, U.S. Interests in Central
Asia: Policy Priorities and Military Roles, draws on the material in all
of these assessments to define future requirements and approaches to
the region. Each of these will be published separately, forthcoming
from RAND.
The research reported here was sponsored by AF/XOX and con-
ducted within the Strategy and Doctrine Program of RAND Project
AIR FORCE. Comments are welcome and may be directed to the
authors and to Andrew Hoehn, director of Project AIR FORCE’s
(PAF’s) Strategy and Doctrine Program. Until late 2003, the then-
director of PAF’s Strategy and Doctrine program, Dr. Edward
Harshberger, provided leadership and support. Research for this re-
port was completed in May 2005.
RAND Project AIR FORCE
RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF), a division of the RAND Corpo-
ration, is the U.S. Air Force’s federally funded research and develop-
ment center for studies and analyses. PAF provides the Air Force with
independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the development,
employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future
aerospace forces. Research is conducted in four programs: Aerospace
Force Development; Manpower, Personnel, and Training; Resource
Management; and Strategy and Doctrine.
Additional information about PAF is available on our web site at
http://www.rand.org/paf.
vii
Contents
Central Asia Frontispiece
Preface
v
Summary
ix
Acknowledgments
xiii
Abbreviations
xvii
CHAPTER ONE
Introduction 1
CHAPTER TWO
China 3
China’s Uighur Minority
4
Regional Cooperation
6
The U.S. Role
9
CHAPTER THREE
Iran 11
Regional Cooperation
13
The U.S. Role
16
CHAPTER FOUR
Afghanistan 19
The U.S. Role
22
viii Central Asia and Its Neighbors: Security and Commerce at the Crossroads
CHAPTER FIVE
Pakistan 23
The U.S. Role
27
CHAPTER SIX
India 29
Regional Cooperation
30
The U.S. Role
34
CHAPTER SEVEN
Conclusions: Implications for U.S. Interests 35
Bibliography
37
ix
Summary
The Asian states neighboring Central Asia have historic links and
strong interests in the region. China, Iran, Afghanistan, India, and
Pakistan are critical players in the security and economic issues that
will determine the future of Central Asia and affect U.S. interests in
the region. All of these states are of importance to the United States,
whether due to the war on terrorism, economic ties, arms control,
nonproliferation, or other reasons. China, Iran, and India have all
aggressively sought to build trade ties to and through Central Asia,
and China and India have also invigorated security cooperation. But
regional states are concerned about the situation in Afghanistan,
which they fear might lead to a spillover of conflict onto their soil,
and they also fear the possibility of Pakistani activity and influence,
which has led them to keep that state at arm’s length.
China has indicated that security is a primary interest in the re-
gion through its initiative in establishing the Shanghai Cooperation
Organization (SCO) with Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Taji-
kistan, and Russia (pp. 6–7). Concerns regarding China’s Muslim
Uighur separatists, as well as concerns of U.S. encirclement, underpin
China’s efforts to promote regional security cooperation (pp. 4–6,
9–10). China has also moved aggressively to expand its economic in-
terests in the region through commodity trade and agreements to im-
port oil via pipeline from Kazakhstan (pp. 7–8).
Iran has a similar perspective toward its Central Asian neigh-
bors. Stability in Afghanistan lies at the heart of Iran’s concerns, as
the Taliban has historically been anathema to Iran (p. 12). Iran main-
x Central Asia and Its Neighbors: Security and Commerce at the Crossroads
tains that an international, United Nations–led military presence
should remain in Afghanistan to prevent a deterioration of the secu-
rity situation (pp. 11–12). However, U.S. presence there and in Cen-
tral Asia creates concern in Iran that U.S. intentions are to surround
and isolate Iran rather than enhance regional security (p. 16). To in-
crease its leverage in the region, Iran is developing economic links
with each country in Central Asia. Transport links are another impor-
tant initiative, with routes being developed via Afghanistan, con-
necting Iranian ports and landlocked Uzbekistan (pp. 13–16).
India shares Iran’s concerns regarding the threat of militants
based in Afghanistan. However, India welcomes U.S. presence in the
region as a stabilizing influence (p. 34). Economic ties are growing,
and India is developing transport and energy links to the region via
Iran and Afghanistan (pp. 33–34). The Central Asian states have
close relations with India dating to the years of the Soviet Union and
the Afghan war, a history that negatively affects their relations with
Pakistan.
Pakistan’s relations with Central Asia suffer from lingering
memories in the region of Pakistan’s role in supporting the Taliban
and Islamic militancy in general. Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and
Kyrgyzstan all remain suspicious of Pakistan’s regional intentions,
and trade with Pakistan has been weak as a result (p. 25). The estab-
lishment of the Karzai government in Kabul has been a blow to Paki-
stan’s regional security strategy. Whereas the Taliban regime would
have been friendly to Pakistan’s interests, the current government is
more open to ties with India (p. 23). Although Pakistan is moving to
overcome its regional reputation, robust cooperation will take time
and effort (p. 26).
Afghanistan remains critical to the future of Central Asia and its
neighbors, as instability in Afghanistan has the potential to destabilize
the region (pp. 19–20). A potent combination of drugs, weapons,
and militants traverse Afghanistan and cross into Central Asia and
beyond. Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan fear that Islamic
militants trained in Afghanistan may slip back across their borders (p.
20). Iran remains apprehensive that hostile, anti-Shia elements may
take control of Afghanistan, putting Iranian security at risk (p. 12).
Summary xi
And Pakistan and India both compete to ensure that the Afghan re-
gime in power is friendly to their interests (pp. 26, 29). Although the
countries across Asia do not agree on how to secure Afghanistan
against threats, unanimous agreement exists on the fact that a stable
Afghanistan is critical to their own security interests.
The U.S. presence has led both the Central Asian states and
their neighbors to ponder how long the United States plans to keep
troops in the region. U.S. intentions in the region have been inter-
preted in various ways. Both China and Iran are apprehensive that
U.S. military presence and security interests in the area have the dual
purpose of containment (pp. 3, 9–10, 11–12, 16). Conversely, Af-
ghanistan would like to see a continued strong role for the United
States in combating militancy and fostering stability (p. 22), and
Pakistan and India see the potential for security cooperation with the
United States in the region (pp. 27, 34). Despite the divergent per-
spectives of their Asian neighbors, the Central Asian states continue
to see a role for the United States in promoting stability in the region.