Những thách thức đối với ngân hàng nhà nước việt nam trong việc đưa ra chính sách trước bối cảnh kinh tế bất ổn của VN hiện nay

hADE+6#kV DE#CD"
/Fg/$F+&-‚7=D…[?+‚#-g/
$F3-4 D, #{V3-7
d_ 3VCmnO1%$#{3-,"qo
C)'[ l‚A)%7)A?}%)
? 0%‚g/$F3[ mnO7
f. Ca
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n cân thương ma
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i – tỷ giá
g/"AEdd2!DH55mnO+#{T+6J
$DEw&$F7g/"A2<)!T+bl
mnO+#{65+4J$DEw&$F7% D>)%,g/
"AE2<)!b+4lmnO+#{65+TJ$D
w&$F7hADE+?kr•oto D2w&$F
?k7= b0<4566+"o$C%%
DS+.o+<6G+GJ" K$L<45657E>w&
$F?kD4+TlmnO I0<DASlmnO 
b0<45667 +)323($c 
H0<4566E"c$" K$L<45657= H
0<4566+;BoG+IlmnO)3323
($cM# -)3( 2@
 $3Y+<S4+HJ" K$L<45657
gk+)%!cAA+
;;o$7=!H0<4566+
;^?6+.lmnOMK$L<4565r.+4lmnOY78K
E+^?!<$" K$L<456578r+
 b0<4566+†Oa!DI+6lmnO+ZZK
$L<4565730%/ b0<4566+D6l
mnO+<u" K$L<45657
2. Thực trạng NHTM cuối năm 2010:
K,,#&'(3$%cD$V&)$
C>:=d7P  g/:@2><455I+"o
:=d)Z3Ck+rCk
-Ck( v$ƒA3F3( )& +?‡
#k'Zt$V$? #%2#&o7
=[ $A(+%<4565+
;E6/+6!"w;2+G
:=d ^E'/0/(+.H:=d8P+G58
 +G655J +GA? 7n
o@$Z-" K$c
=~+P/777d2"^(:=d@)
0 Dk!"EA"7
=&+"c/#8+PNOD$V-3+E"c$#C
kVV7
=+C)V:E"cA&13(
3}/o)A0(: 2,;w)
?c3# ~ :=d D2'k&o74.:=d
#2/<3A.555l- <45657d^?K;
o!/(/A?)D<3).6`64`4566+
%T`66`4566}vS=d (.555
l-3M&+PZ=)+nNv8VZ+h Y7
h61O":=d/(3$~
STT
Ngân
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Vốn
hiện
tạSTT
Ngân hàng Vốn hiện tại
Vốn cần tăng
tối thiểu
6
nNv8VZ
Mn h$Y
4+SI5 GS5
4
h 
Mh [h$Y
6+G55 6+G55
.
PZ=)
Mˆ["[h$Y
4+555 6+555
S &M† #$Y 4+555 6+555
Tổng S+5S5
(tỷ đồng)V (Nguồn: WSS tổng hợp)
Thứ ba là vấn đề thanh khoản trong hệ thống NHTM:~ "o,D
D/ $E?c# >C+?;$Vc_,
‚3 :_"E!  Z+
mnO+#&2"+ ^‚3$LD€A@%
!$ (:7s%-30 +:
2;"&Bt+F);"&)2 ^;"&A
A& 7<4565+;"&)2o064
J+#,6S‰6IJ+EZA6TJ7~;"& )•[ EA
6b‰45J+)$E$< %/g)(O+$ƒ [ "
w&,+<@$%#k"B7=,D)}?),
%)7
Thứ 4 là tỷ lệ nợ xấu tăng và chất lượng tín dụng thấp7=2<@!
?r$VC+Oo%/g-ŠE;
0$ƒC+$%C/E‚"w& ^/"+)
ow&<  :7=low&MP~Y<>6+bJ<
455bA4+GJ <45657^#$ oA4I7555l-A
C65:=d ")F)lP~A.+4J7hAD&3
&oFk!?rC),!?r+$  )@|c
E2(  #&2"+$ <A$ <4565
M<4.+GJ" <455b+?co 4|c)%64J'?oY
•)A?},Dow&A7
Như vậy những vấn đề mà NHNN phải giải quyết trong bối cảnh kinh tế 2011
có thể tóm gọn lại ở những điểm trọng tâm sau:
- Tình trạng lạm phát ở mức độ hai con số
- Duy trì mức độ tăng trưởng ổn định
- Tình trạng bất ổn của hệ thống NHTM ở Việt Nam
- Tình trạng đô la hóa đang ngày càng trở nên nghiêm trọng
3. Cơ sở lý thuyết :
Oc V@/0A+E&):)/
^&3&37=)A< rAk(!
/( <4566+g/!"(:?cAZ"@
p)%g/rA$3%D/7
$3%D/+:0c!"3€^+
VC.Vr()%1: D2k@+l?c#€#2
l;"&%$&7
Hoạt động thị trường mở D2#8$ ? :c
Ak@+CE2%33$%7sD
%o3V 3$%+:c#8$ 
:=d ^ VB7)Vr DC(!"
3,E! !wo30#Z)B$3$%+
)A,cVCC 'Av/r2 (
 k7
Thay đổi tỷ lệ dự trữ bắt buộc6Vr$(:78:=d#€
#2/E6$ 3‚D:_?c#€#27s )$V
o@; ^0 )+o![ 6l&kA
'"3‚($# $< +"c'k(
:7sc!"3€^+:E<l?c
#€#2+>E"3+D%$$<D 3(
:=d+-$< )(:7
8Ktăng lãi suất chiết khấu7~;"&%$&;"&:
 :=d)$:=d# 0)(?c[ C)k7
=<;"&%$&"qD%:=d):>E
3 3$%7
  c%+:vE"‚?r2 Vr"
{rA$3%D/$" D!?r+Cp;
"&(:=d7
"‚?rVrkiểm soát hạn mức tín dụngEB/D%
D 3C(:=d<'$o3 3$
%7:"‚?rVr)#{C)kD!?r
>:=d >$L$+E|:=d9o/ƒ/&/
!?r 3$%#{D!?rC)k7=)A•
0#A{"‚?r!"$" D!?rE
 ;"&k<A+D:=d+"
Z&0(:=d+•E/"k!0
{ "c$" (:+)$E$< %/g(
? /7
=%/[ việc sử dụng công cụ quản lý lãi suất của NHTMc
rA(!"3(:XC)k$;"& ^
0;"& )(:=d7:$" ;"&E2
D%$+0CE2<@$%7(
 +# C)3o(:=d+ o/;"&c? o
C0$" (,+:"q#C)k;"&0
 3);"&" 3‚7%{# C)3o
$(:=d,:"qC)k;"& 3‚
;"& 3)7d2&3•0#%@)$"‚?r
Vr)(:E"q!D  D2(
:=d7
II. Đánh giá chính sách NHNN trong năm 2011:
8< kC)%"66`iX8P)4S`54`45663//
()%g/$3%D/+'k$%|V+# "w;
2+rA(!/(/( <45661s3%D/'k
$%|VM8PaD6GX6HJ7'kl+$ +<@
!?rZ45J+'/Z D6GX6IJ+g/"A$V
C6GJw&$F‹#2"$VCGJY7,D%3+#
%"q9g/ 2"!"(D (: <45667
1. Chính sách lãi suất:
a. Chính sách lãi suất cho VNĐ:
;#%+;"& <4565?‡#%$/D/< +^
# <$;"&)2O;<_>66‰66+GJ
A%6HJ@2"ZD$,D€+-;
"& )•[ >6.‰6SJA6b‰46J`<K)>$ )7
d^?K;"& 2 Vr$3%D/+ 
o/@2;"&C "q2D
Z? /!F)<D+$ƒ [ ?k)"D
/<7,g)+)5.`5.`4566+:;#Thông tư số 02/2011-
TT-NHNNC)k1'!?r&k;"&)2#{-
$VoC6SJ7=)AAc%:=d3)2
3‚;"&o06SJ&3MEA6TJX45JY78*
g(:=d&?D+$‚3go;
"&3‚$VC6SJMBC)k(:Y-g
o2/0C^*#{3^+ ^#{/rr@+/rr
/D7)E  Dkc39;"&$VE"c
/(!/( #3$%|V% 
 $E$<+$0)(? /}& ?),"
w&$? }E? /"Œ";"& )7
)H`5b`4566+=:; Chỉ thị 02/CT-NHNN 3&
9cC)k3;"&)2#{-
#{Vde(=8=O M_=8=OY7=[
E+=8=O/cB;"&)2#{-
[ Thông tư số 02/2011-TT-NHNN7=[ 9k)+=8=O/D
C)k3;"&)2"q#k,9 ^‡r(
Cp+3(=8=O‹j89k54`8=X:•D Z
% =8=O(E3$*}189k))A0Z
k=8=O(2/#  3:=8=O
D$VD/D;"&)2-[
Ck(:7)2#//!&D)(=
)‡<h,{cE$%;"& )w
v6HJX6bJM|co "w&Y7n$:/
9k)+;E3ZD@7%)T`b`4566+;
E.S`S4:=d#<#9D   3&/
BC)k(:3;"&)27d^?K/#
//!&D)#k$V!)A  
D3!phi thị trường* C)%k(V+=
o%"C_2? /
$)Z'• D? &$ D 2$L_
3^#{;"&_3^#{D/&/Z"  D
$Vg7
=%/E+^,D2"=8=Og#{ /ƒ/
)2;"&60+40}@6SJMg)%‚Ar
;,!;"&<"qoC6SJY+)4T`b`4566+:#
Thông tư 30/2011-TT–NHNNEc56`65`4566)%=V54`4566X
==X:+C)k1;"&3‚#{('+
D=8=O"13‚ss:E$LD?6IJ`<‹>
6@A6SJ7
Ž1
ND$VD 2;
"&$E/(C)k0;"&
(:A$V)2o? ;"&&/Z3" 
:=do07
=D 3$ )M/!Y^#
? /"w&‹E$V$)%$!?B‚3 
/0 Ep|$)%$!?Bg/3 "
w&$? M0"w&Y••to<@$%7
nƒ/&BD[ D+'
k7
s3%D/M/^2;"&&/M;"&cY+
/! ? /"w&+<'+••D
/Y
o1
N)$E$< +!$ (:Z ,
D# 2M2;"&0g)M;"&cY+?B"q
Ew‚ :+)!Z ^ZB$
:0 k!?r[)#&' w;2Y
/D!DAk+"c%V#{MEo
 ? /)+ ‚3:Y
N"B)23M=3V'A3$%+??K
30 +mnO+#&2"+$ +!?r[ 
3!"@A$E$<Z+D vFCF1!?r+_
0 mnO+0kmnO<••<9+&$ƒ
[ D/< Y
ncCpc"cAB(:),D3
:=d}E#//o ;"&+D "cD$V
D:+@#&o%rA;"& )+"c'
k(k3• D2$? ('!?r7
ZD,:#2/3M?
^;"&0?#{(k)%rY+)$E$<
 !"€^3,rA$3%D/7
b. Chính sách quản lý USD:
{omnOE@)M<k(
Y+ <4566+:;#3<#//p$3;"c
<(C,VE :=d+r1
)b`5S`4566+:#Thông tư số 09/2011/TT-NHNN3C)
k;"&)2#{mnOD=8=O('6J‹
.J7nEThông tư số 14/2011/TT-NHNN o#Mc
4`5I`4566Y)%=VAC)kC)k;"&)2
#{mnOD=8=O('5+GJ‹4J7890)4+
:;4V3C)k;"&)2#{mnOD
=8=Ow &){:$D) $" )
2mnO7
-+:v$%o/!"?c#€#22 D
C)%k<l?c#€#2mnO>IJATJMi)%kHG5`i‰
:)b`5S`4566l?c##IJ••i)%k645b`i‰:)
6`5I`4566+l?c#€#2mnOHJ••i)%k6b4G`i‰:)
4I`T`4566+l?c#€#2mnOTJY7
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%r$ mnO7=>‚H%)+3
„8h+yw#$+n #$j;#€0!";*;"&+D
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"&)%6GJ2<;$%0%? /)mnO7=[ )A#
(=:+;"&O"q36HJX6bJ`<73)E
BF)? /_O ;"&)mnO9@HJ
2<A;"&B)}>65X64J2<’“‘+o%
}23mnO7
c. Chính sách lãi suất chiết khấu, lãi suất tái cấp vốn:
= <4566+:;Ar#SC)%k3;"&&/
+;"&%$&+;"& )CA
Văn bản Ngày hiệu
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Lãi suất tái
chiết khấu
Lãi suất tái
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vay qua đêm
i  4I45`i
X:
5G`66`4565
HJ bJ bJ
i  4H6`i  ‰
:
6H`54`4566 66J 66J
i  .Hb`i  ‰
:
5T`5.`4566 64J 64J 64J
i  Ib4`i  ‰
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56`5S`4566 6.J 6.J
i  b4b`i  ‰
:
56`5G`4566 6.J 6SJ 6SJ
i  4465`i  ‰
:
5I`65`4566 6GJ 6IJ
=>#A&){. D;"&A3<A+);"&
%$&6.J+A"&/6GJ+;"& )6IJ Z;
"&)23‚73) &):"‚?r!"3€
^ 'c$3%D/7
2. Chính sách tỷ giá:
=ckC)%"54`iX8P3//()%9D +
3c$% D/$%Xw;2<4566+K,
M:Y•;EC)%k39l!
Ml#,CAY/?r>)66`4`4566 công văn 1105-
NHNN-QLNH ngày 11/02/2011 về điều chỉnh tỷ giá từ 19.000 lên 20.693
đồng/USD (tăng 9,3%)7
Ž1
Về thời điểm+)$V#&,;o?c# •
$g"cA $ƒ ?(4 DlA:lc? ‹
E"cc_$$V# B)0+
B/#/#2/(k‹
Về mức điều chỉnh+)"& "Z2<C+
mnO  ?kA;<67H55-+>6T7b.4O
A457Ib.O`mnOX<Zb+.J" <4+6J o
39l)6T`T`4565+<.+.IJ)66`4`4565+$% 00
[l:%"+EBoClkc? +0wE#,
D-Dl@
Về biên độ+%/rwu/#A2 ?kC.03
9l v6<C+[ E+#A2 ?k;Aru/
?0>”XGJ+-%/)A@”X.J+0)w0
+9v”X6J+<!'k  D2l 
:7
Cam kết trong thời gian tới sẽ điều hành tỷ giá bình quân liên ngân hàng
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